Rate rise could sink PM_英文原版

a third interest rate rise will cost john howard marginal seats in nsw, voters have told the daily telegraph in an exclusive survey.

nearly a third of voters in six key electorates have warned the prime minister the jump in mortgage rates expected next month would batter his bid for a fifth term.

it could lose the liberals the western sydney seat of lindsay, the blue mountains seat of macquarie, and dobell on the central coast.

it could also prevent the liberals taking parramatta back from the alp and make the party's defence of eden-monaro harder.

"i've been saving for a house for 12 months and interest rate rises hurt me two ways – my rent goes up and i can't afford to save," said security officer lee aston, 27, from glenmore park, a voter in lindsay.

"there are some things that howard does well and other things i don't agree with, such as how he promised to keep rates down last time."

other voters said they would be angered by another rise but still could not vote for labor and its leader kim beazley.

"i'd vote against howard but i don't think beazley is a legitimate alternative," said ashley worner, 36, a construction manager from hazelbrook and a voter in macquarie.

the market is preparing for a rise next month. it would be the fourth since the 2004 election in which the government promised to keep rates low and the eighth consecutive rise since 2002.

on wednesday this week the bureau of statistics will release the latest inflation figures – evidence of an upward trend would strengthen chances of an interest rate jump.

the reserve bank board will next meet on melbourne cup day, november 7. if it decides on an increase, it would be announced the following day.

the daily telegraph went to six nsw seats where the movement of a few votes could see a change of representation and spoke to 250 electors who had backed the government in 2004.

the seats and their margins were wentworth (lib malcolm turnbull 2.5 per cent), lindsay (lib jackie kelly 2.9 per cent), eden monaro (lib gary nairn 3.3 per cent), dobell (lib ken ticehurst 4.8 per cent), macquarie (lib kerry bartlett notionally 0.5 per cent alp after the redistribution), parramatta (alp julie owens but notionally 1 per cent liberal after the redistribution).

a sample was also taken in bennelong, held by mr howard by 4.2 per cent, where just 10 per cent of those surveyed said a rate rise would change their vote.

however, some 60 per cent of the voters spoken to in lindsay and 55 per cent in dobell said a rise would alter their poll choice.

the figure in parramatta was 50 per cent, eden monaro 42 per cent, macquarie 30 per cent, and wentworth 20 per cent.

meanwhile, homeowners fearing another interest rate rise are rushing to put their houses on the market this spring – and so many homes hitting the market at once could lead to further price falls.

more than 1600 properties were auctioned in sydney last month compared to 995 last september, according to industry analysts cpm research.